No ifs and buts
We believe in presenting bold views
without any ifs and buts; vocal and un-equivocal. We believe in owning
up to
the risk of unambiguous views. So, when we are wrong, we are wrong. The
institutional audience has appreciated clarity in our views.
We track and model alternate &
derivatives data to identify larger trends. The objective is to get a
non-fundamental perspective which captures crowd sentiments and helps
identify peaks and troughs. We primarily track 9 data sets:
- EPFR flows: Track global flow movement of ~134,500
funds with more than USD 50tn in assets (USD 29tn equities, USD 11tn
bonds & USD 7tn money market). Flows are categorized as
institutional &
retail, ETF & non-ETF, large, mid & small caps, value & growth,
sectors
and countries.
- Thematic indices: We created the High Beta vs Low
Beta
Index, Expensive vs Cheap Stocks Index, Leader vs Laggard Index,
Best
Earnings Growth vs Worst Earnings Growth Index, Penny Stocks vs High
Value Index. All these indices are based on Nifty, NSE500 and S&P500
as
the parent index as well as adjusted for survivorship bias. They
present
a holistic picture on crowd movements, time larger trends and
inflection
points.
- Mutual fund aggregates: MF ownership categorized
into
sectors and themes (beta, valuation, value, growth, mid caps and
small
caps). For eg, historically what % of MF portfolio was invested in
high
beta stocks.
- Shareholding trends: Holdings of FII, public,
promoters, DII, insurance across sectors and themes
- Analyst consensus: Rate & breadth of earnings
upgrades
& downgrades and average upgrades & downgrades in analyst target
price
for various indices.
- F&O spreads, rollovers & volatility: Gauging market
sentiments through premium of actual spreads vs theoretical spreads
for
stocks, sectors and overall markets. Volatility spreads and skews.
Quantifying market sentiments through premium & discount of roll
spreads. Internals on F&O data like % of stocks where futures are
trading at a premium or discount, average premium or discount.
- Primary market issuances: Rate of fresh paper
supply as
a % of mcap. Rate of absorption vs liquidity.
- Market internal structures: Our Market Internals
framework is a deep-dive into internal accumulation and distribution
patterns in identifying important market inflexions and deep data
work
involving advanced market breadth analytics on a global scale.
- Relative price trends: outperformance &
underperformance of a sector or a theme vs the market. For eg, high
beta
or low P/E outperformance. Helps in portfolio positioning.